Wild Card Weekend Thoughts

A brief posting giving you my thoughts on the 4 NFL Wild Card Weekend matchups:

Atlanta at Arizona, Saturday 4:30PM ET, NBC (Tom Hammond with Cris Collinsworth and Tiki Barber) – The last time the Cardinals franchise hosted a playoff game: the President was Harry Truman, Ballerina by Vaughn Monroe was the number one song in the country, Miracle on 34th Street was in theatres, and the rival American Football League wouldn't be formed for another 13 years! Hopefully, it won't be another 62 years until the next home playoff game for Cardinal fans. This much is for sure; they won't be playing next week. Atlanta is second in the league in rushing yards per game, and while the Cardinals run defense wasn't exactly porous, only four teams in the league allowed more points per game than Arizona.
PICK: Atlanta 28-23

Indianapolis at San Diego, Saturday 8:00PM ET, NBC (Al Michales with John Madden and Edie Falco, I mean, Andrea Kramer) – When the Colts edged the Bolts 23-20 in Week 12, many of us (myself included) thought that the Chargers were done with 7 losses. Even more of us thought they were done the next week when they lost to Atlanta at home; no way in hell they were going to get in with 8 losses. But thanks to the Denver Heimlich Maneuvers, the Chargers are not only still playing, but are actually hosting a wild card game (see below for my thoughts on that). But as impressive as the Bolts have been the last 4 weeks, the Colts are the best team in the league the 2^nd half of the season. Peyton looks like the old Peyton, Addai is healthy again, and the defense is doing just enough to win games.
PICK: Indy 26-20

Baltimore at Miami, Sunday 1:00PM ET, CBS (Jim Nantz and Phil Simms) – Another rematch from a 2008 game, as the Ravens downed the Dolphins 27-13 back in Week 7. Of course, that game was so long ago we hadn't even elected an African-American as President yet. While the Dolphins have learned how to win close games down the stretch this season, and that I feel Chad Pennington should have been named as the league MVP this year for what he did for his team, this Ravens defense looks too tough for even the 1972 Dolphins to deal with. Miami was able to use the wildcat formation with much success against other teams this season, but the one team that barely gave an inch against it was Balto. Miami tried 5 plays out of their trick formation, and gained a total of 4 yards. Yes, Miami is a much better team now as opposed to Week 7, but Baltimore is a much better team as well, and one that I think has a great chance of running the table in the AFC.
PICK: Baltimore 24-10

Philadelphia at Minnesota, Sunday 4:30PM ET, FOX (Joe Buck with Troy Aikman and Pam Oliver) – These are two teams that on paper appear to be evenly matched. The glaring difference is at quarterback, where Donovan McNabb figures to have an advantage over Tavaris Jackson, seems to tip the scales towards the Eagles. The key to watch for is how well the Eagles and Brian Westbrook run the ball against the Vikings defense, the best in the league at stopping the run. One of these home teams has to win, and of the four, Minnesota's home-field advantage could be a factor. I think it will be.
PICK: Minnesota 20-17

Should these outcomes occur, it would set up the divisional round as follows: Saturday, Baltimore at Tennessee and Minnesota at Carolina; Sunday, Atlanta at NY Giants and Indianapolis at Pittsburgh.

A quick note about the home field situation: for the second straight year, there are division winners playing at home with worse W-L records than their wild-card opponents. I don't have a problem with this in the sense that divisional play differs from division to division. But when one team had 3 fewer wins, and actually lost to their opponent at home during the season, their needs to be an exception made, because even though that team won its division, they clearly didn't earn any advantage in doing so.

So, to borrow a phrase from fellow Pascack Hills High School alum Bill Maher, NEW RULE: If a division winner has 3+ fewer wins than their wild card opponent, they forfeit home-field advantage. After all, fair is fair, and there is no way in the world the Chargers should be allowed to play at home this weekend.

Enjoy the games...