World Cup update through end of Saturday June 19

World Cup update - get your brackets ready - So here are the scenarios for teams trying to advance out of their groups and into the elimination round of the World Cup.  I will also update my picks:

GROUP A
Through two games, Uruguay and Mexico have 4 points each, France and South Africa 1 point each.  I picked France (FAIL) and Mexico to get through. Mexico plays Uruguay and France plays South Africa on Tuesday.

If Mexico and Uruguay play to a draw, they both advance automatically.  If one team wins, that team automatically qualifies as top team from the group.  The loser then has to await the outcome of the France-South Africa game.  If that game ends in a tie, then the Mexico-Uruguay loser still advances.  If the France-South Africa game has a winner, that team must score enough goals to overcome the goal differential stat (check back on Wednesday for that info).

GROUP B
I picked Argentina and Nigeria to advance; so far, I'm half right, but could still be all right.

Argentina has won two games, and barring a loss to Greece on Tuesday, is through to the next round.  In fact, they would have to lose by three goals to Greece and have South Korea defeat Nigeria by at least three goals, to be eliminated.

Right now, South Korea and Greece have 3 points each and a -1 goal differential, but South Korea would get in if things finished up as is.  Nigeria, which has lost two games, still has an outside chance of getting in.  If they defeat South Korea and if Argentina defeats Greece, then Nigeria would get second bid.

GROUP C
Like most, I picked England and the USA to come out of here, but I cautioned about the dangerous play of the other two squads.  So far, Slovenia is making Anze Kopitar proud with 4 points, while the USA and England both have 2 and Algeria has 1.  On Wednesday, the USA plays Algeria while Slovenia plays England.

Slovenia gets in with a win or a tie.  If they lose, they still get in if Algeria defeats USA.

The USA gets in with a win or if they tie they get in with a win or a tie by Slovenia.  If the USA loses, they are out.  If they tie and England wins, they are out.  But again, for those only caring about how we do: win and we're in regardless.  Tie, we need help.  Lose and we're out.

England gets in with a win or if they tie they get in with a tie by USA but only if England scores three or more goals more than the USA does on Wednesday.  If England loses, they are out.

Algeria must win to advance.  There is no other scenario that gets them through.

GROUP D
Before the tournament, I selected Germany and Serbia, but indicated that Germany was the only team I felt strongly about, and that any of the other three could easily get in.  So far, Ghana has 4 points, while Germany and Serbia have 3.  Australia has 1 point through two games.  Only the Aussies lack control of their ability to advance.

On Wednesday, Ghana plays Germany and Serbia plays Australia.  Ghana gets through with a win or if they tie or lose and Serbia wins.  If they tie and Australia wins by fewer than 5 goals, they advance.  If they lose and Australia wins, it will come down to goal differential.  If they lose and Serbia wins, they are out.

Germany gets through with a win or a tie if Australia wins by less than 5 goals.  If they  tie and Serbia wins, they are eliminated.  If they lose, they are likely out.

Serbia gets through with a win.  If they tie, they get through with a win by Ghana or if Germany wins by at least two goals.  If they tie and Germany ties Ghana, they must score at least four more goals than Germany does to advance.  If they lose, they are out.

Australia's road is simple: win and they are in if Germany also loses or ties and Australia scores 9 or more goals in their win.  If Australia ties or loses, they are out.

GROUP E
The last of the groups through Saturday night to play two games so far.  The Netherlands has 6 points and has already clinched a spot into the Round of 16, while Japan and Denmark have 3 points each.  Cameroon became the first team officially eliminated from the competition with 0 points through 2 games.  I picked the Netherlands (yeah!) and Cameroon (boo!) to get through.

Netherlands is in, and with a win or tie against Cameroon on Thursday ensures that they will win Group E and play the runner-up from Group F in the next round.

The other team to advance from this group will be determined when Japan plays Denmark on Thursday.  Because they have the same number of points so far, and Japan has an even goal differential while Denmark is -1, this means that Denmark must win the game outright to advance, otherwise Japan does with a win or a tie.

GROUP F
This is one of three groups with just one game played so far, and all four countries have 1 point each, with all four having scored just 1 goal so far.  On Sunday, Italy plays New Zealand, while Paraguay plays Slovakia.

It's too early yet to talk scenarios for this group; we'll have a clearer idea after Sunday's competition, and we'll update this on Monday.  BTW, Italy and Paraguay were my picks.

GROUP G
Through one game each, Brazil has 3 points with a win over North Korea, while Ivory Coast and Portugal played to a scoreless tie.  Portugal and Brazil (in that order) were my picks for this group.

On Sunday, Brazil plays the Ivory Coast, while Portugal plays North Korea on Monday.  If Brazil and North Korea both win these next games, Brazil will qualify for the elimination tournament regardless of their final group game result on Friday against Portugal.  North Korea is all but mathematically eliminated from contention if they lose and Ivory Coast upsets Brazil.  Check back on Tuesday for an update.

GROUP H
The last of the groups in the competition has also only had one game each contested so far.  Spain and Chile were my pre-tourney picks.  Spain was upset by Switzerland in their first game, while Chile defeated Honduras.  On Monday, Chile and Switzerland will play, and Spain takes on Honduras.

If there isn't a tie in both games, the winner of the Chile-Switzerland automatically gets in and the loser of Spain-Honduras is out.  It would then come down to the results from the third set of games; check back on Tuesday for more info.

RECAP: So far, I have one team through, one team out, another team (France) on the verge of being out.  Actually, I'd be okay with France being out because of the soccer karma coming back to bite them on the ass after getting in last year with handball goal against Ireland (plus my picking them, which is a double-whammy of karma).  We'll see how it goes from here...

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