Bringing NFL Playoff Picture into Focus

Bob Costas is right. It's one of my pet peeves about sports, and in particular sportscasters and sports announcers. Teams chasing down positions in the playoffs are NOT in control of their own destiny. You can't control destiny. It's like when baseball people talk about somebody having "105 RBI's on the season". The stat RBI stands for Runs Batted In, not Runs Batted INS.

Anyway, now that I've briefly vented about playoff destiny, let me set the table for all you NFL fans for this weekend. All 16 games are on Sunday, BTW's…

AFC Teams – 3 are in, 6 are battling for 3 spots
IN: Tennessee is the #1 seed, Pittsburgh is the #2 seed, and Indianapolis is locked into the #5 seed as a wild card.
TO BE DETERMINED:
#3 Seed for AFC East winner: Miami wins the AFC East with a win over the NY Jets. If the Dolphins lose, then New England wins the AFC East with a win over Buffalo. If both the Dolphins and Patriots lose, the Jets will win the AFC East.
#4 Seed for AFC West winner: The winner of Sunday night's Denver at San Diego contest wins this division. If there is a tie, the Broncos will win the division. If the Chargers win it, they will join the 1985 Cleveland Browns as the only 8-8 AFC division winners in history.
#6 Seed for 2nd Wild Card: Baltimore can claim this spot with a win against Jacksonville. If the Ravens lose, the Patriots can claim it with a win over Buffalo provided Miami wins as well. The Jets can claim this spot if the Ravens and the Patriots win the AFC East with a win.

NFC Teams – 4 are in, 5 are battling for 2 spots
IN: NY Giants are the #1 seed, Arizona is the #4 seed, and both Carolina and Atlanta are in.
TO BE DETERMINED:
#2 Seed for NFC South winner: Carolina wins the NFC South with a win over New Orleans or an Atlanta loss to St. Louis. Atlanta gains this spot if they win AND Carolina loses. Of these two teams, the one that is not the #2 seed will be the #5 seed.
#3 Seed for NFC North winner: Minnesota wins the NFC North with a win over the Giants. If they lose, Chicago can clinch the NFC North with a win over Houston. If both the Vikings and Bears lose, Minnesota wins the division.
#6 Seed for 2^nd Wild Card: Dallas can claim this spot with a win against Philadelphia. If the Cowboys lose, Tampa Bay can clinch this spot with a win over Oakland. If both the Cowboys and Bucs lose, Chicago can claim this spot with a win over Houston if Minnesota also wins. If the Cowboys, Bucs, and Bears all lose, Philadelphia will claim this spot.

Enjoy the games!

Another Year down the drain

It's that time of year again. The time of year when all the media types like to roll out their "top 10 of the past 12 months" lists. Back in the day, this meant dialing in Warner Wolf's year in review on WCBS in New York. More recently, I've tried to forget that yet another year is ticking off the calendar. This is largely because of a sense of non-accomplishment on my part.

It also means coming up with silly New Year's Resolutions, which we all tend to forget within a few weeks. For me these last few years, my resolution was to gain weight. Most people resolve to lose weight, and for the many that struggle to do so, it is yet another instance where we've failed ourselves on some level. My psychology for resolving to gain weight is simple: it's a win-win for me. Either I actually lose weight, which benefits me from a health standpoint, or I gain weight, which means I've adhered to my resolution.

Still, taking a glance in the rear view mirror of the last year provides an interesting snapshot for me. It was a year of highs and lows for me, more so than previous years. This was the year I turned 40. This was the year I gained some acceptance and accolades as a writer. This was the year the Giants shocked the world by upsetting the undefeated Patriots in a Super Bowl for the ages. This was the year that America actually elected an African-American president. This was the year that China hosted the Olympics, and did so without major incident (at least during the games themselves). This was the year the save record in baseball fell, and the year that Britney Spears saved herself from herself. The Celtics returned to relevance, providing another championship to a city now filled with sports riches and long abandoning its star-crossed sports mentality. It was also the year that one of the most famous curses this side of the Bambino's; that of Billy Penn, came crashing down in Philadelphia as the Phillies won the World Series.

And yet, I still don't know what the hell I'm doing, or why I'm still around trying to figure it out. At the beginning of the year, I thought things were finally figured out. As the great character from Field of Dreams, Terrence Mann stated, "There comes a time when all the cosmic tumblers have clicked into place and the universe opens itself up for a few seconds to show you what's possible." I was certain that had happened for me professionally. And yet, by the halfway mark of the year, that myth was confirmed as merely a mirage.

As I write this from the beautiful new Terminal 5 at JFK Airport in New York, waiting for my Jet Blue flight to return me back to Los Angeles, I wonder now as I always seemingly have, just what the hell is in front of me. All of my friends seem to have their lives figured out. They've managed to secure good career situations, fallen in love and married people, and in many cases had children and bought property. As for me, one of the selling points to prospective employers these days is that I'm unattached and have no responsibilities whatsoever.

Of course, this wasn't a big concern in years past when unemployment was 2% and the economy was super consistent. Now with companies going belly-up seemingly every day, and not just run-of-the-mill companies but big time bellwether cows mind you, I find things to be very unnerving. I find myself more concerned with the world outside of myself than ever before, and yet can't help feeling that I need to be selfish now more than ever. Even in the world of sports, it seems as though everywhere you turn, more of the outside world continues to penetrate the bubble that had once fully encapsulated it.

Maybe that's why, more than ever before, I find myself watching the games that people play. I need to for the escapism it provides from the Casey Anthony's of the world. I need to even to deal with the Terrell Owens types that threaten its sanity on a daily basis.

I have also started to appreciate things I've long since taken for granted. As I mentioned in a recent posting, I thoroughly enjoyed spending time with my father during Thanksgiving. Recently, these Lexus commercials where a kid is remembering his greatest ever Christmas gift, only to have it replaced by the new memory of getting a Lexus for a gift, reminds me of the day I received a gift I longed for more than any other before or since.

It was Christmas of 1977, and along with anticipating the NFL playoff game between the Oakland Raiders and Baltimore Colts that afternoon, which did not disappoint by the way, I woke up that morning certain that I was going to receive a Mattel Electronics hand held football game. For those under the age of 35, it is important to understand that this was in an age where technology of all kinds was still in its infancy. This hand held unit, which ran on a 9-volt battery and featured only running plays, was not only at the top of my wish list that year, it was my wish list. As the morning unfolded of us unwrapping gifts, I tried to temper my frustration at not getting the one thing I wanted by politely smiling at all the sweaters and matchbox cars I received. The last gift was a dictionary, and I did all that I could not to show my disappointment, because even though I didn't get what I wanted, I understood how lucky I was.

Then, like Ralphie Parker's father did with him in A Christmas Story, my father asked me about what I had received, and then with a distracted and puzzled look on his face, he said, "Hey, what is that big box underneath the dining room table?" I leapt to my feet, still grasping to one last straw of hope, and raced over to the table to find a huge box about the size of bathroom sink unit. I struggled to slide it out from under the table, and began to rip the wrapping off the box. I opened it up, and it revealed another wrapped box inside. Five boxes later, my Christmas wish had come true, and when school resumed after New Year's, I brought in my game to show off as the envy of my class.

So I guess I need to treat 2009 like that present I long wished for that wasn't under the tree. Maybe it's just under the table instead, and this will be the year I finally get to open it.

Winter’s Daydream with Irish Eyes

ITEM ONE: Sarah's Wintersong still has me at first note

I love and care for my father very much. I don't always show it, but it's true, and sometimes it takes little exchanges between us to remind me of it. Last week at my uncle's B&B in North Wildwood, I had a really good visit with him. One of the things that accentuated this was him giving me a copy of Sarah McLachlan's Wintersong album from two years ago. He knew it was something that initially I would love and loathe at the same time, but I think deep down he also knew that I would eventually drop the latter feeling about it.

I'm not a big fan of Christmas music per se. My dad loves it. My brother used to listen to it the day after Halloween until Christmas Day. As for me, for a myriad of reasons too personal to even blog about, I could only seemingly tolerate it from about 10:30pm on Christmas Eve until about 11am on Christmas Day. I think it had as much to do with my inner struggle with God, who and/or whatever he/she/it is, and the year-round vengefulness I felt was being directed at me and my family members that I didn't feel super excited to celebrate the birth of his only son. But that's my cross to bear.

I have more of a modern taste in holiday music, but to a point. I can deal with it in limited numbers before it feels like somebody forcing me to eat vegetables. But in listening to the disc on my way back up the Garden State Parkway last night, I listened to, with apologies to Bruce Springsteen, arguably my favorite musician of all-time and her album of holiday music. And once more, I became enraptured by her abilities as a singer and a songwriter.

I enjoyed her different take on the John Lennon "Happy Christmas, War is Over", could hear Diana Krall in the Peanuts standard "Christmas Time is Here", and dream about the days when my family was together in Montvale as her version of Joni Mitchell's "River" played on my MP3 player. But the song that I kept replaying and replaying, and being shocked that I didn't pick up on it two years ago when it was released, was the album's namesake, "Wintersong".

I can picture her writing this song, in some snow-covered cottage outside of Vancouver, and all the while wishing, at the risk of sounding 'stalkerish', that it was me she was writing about. I mean that second verse where she writes, "It's late and morning's in no hurry, but sleep won't set me free," is pure genius. It makes me realize that one of the things most people I know take for granted is something I have rarely known, which is the love of someone else at a time where loneliness has a special way of digging at your soul. Maybe that explains why this time of year is one that I have rarely fully embraced. As Bruce Willis once said on Moonlighting, "a good job doesn't love you back."

So I have been playing this song over and over again at night. It's soothing and harrowing at the same time. At 40, with my own mortality continuing to be more self-evident, I wonder how many more Christmases I'll have, and why it is that I continue to be Christian Slater when it comes to relationships – my own worst enemy. After all, as Sarah sings in Wintersong, I don't yet have an answer for "…when silence gets too hard to handle, and the night gets too long…" I keep saying that things will change when I get my life stabilized. Trouble is, that day may never come.

ITEM TWO: Why Notre Dame will never again be Notre Dame

In the midst of the "will Charlie Weis be fired by Notre Dame" rumors this past week, it's important for ND alumni and subway alumni like me alike to remember something. This isn't your father's Notre Dame, much less your grandfather's Notre Dame, and I'm afraid it never will be again. It doesn't matter if you could raise Knute Rockne from the dead. You can search for foolish answers, but there just some things about college football in the year 2008 that I believe will prevent the Irish from ever having their fans' eyes smiling again.

Back before the advent of today's college football, Notre Dame had several advantages going for it. One thing was that the major pipeline for them to gain a recruiting advantage was through the major Catholic schools across the country. Another was that there were only 2 or 3 games on television per week, and because of their previous popularity and success, Notre Dame was always one of those teams on TV each and every week. Because they weren't locked into a regional conference, they traveled to opposite ends of the country to play against the powerhouse schools. This meant increased exposure for kids wanting to play in the NFL.

Then in the 1980's, ESPN built itself up by showing college football games by the bunch. The more teams that played on television, the more realistic it was for those schools to recruit kids to stay at home to play football. It also became easier for the warm weather states like Florida and California to build powerhouse programs by attracting kids to that climate, rather than bitterly cold winters in outposts like South Bend. As the influence of television grew, the dev elopement of stronger conferences with bowl tie-ins made it harder for Notre Dame to stay competitive. As one of the last independent teams, they get to keep all their TV money from NBC and any bowl money they receive instead of splitting it evenly with other conference members. Yet, when they go 3-9 like they did in 2007, the Irish also receive 100% of $0.00 from no bowl appearances.

Furthermore, the academic expectations have changed at the university. The standards for admission have been tightened, meaning that if Tim Brown, Jerome Bettis, Tony Rice, Rickey Watters, and Raghib Ismail all tried to play at Notre Dame now, they all would have been denied admission to the school. Those are arguably the five best players in the last 25 years of the ND football. So the problem, in my view, begins there. From what I understand, all five of those players wound up being excellent students at the university. But if 'borderline' student-athletes like them would be denied a chance to attend Notre Dame in 2008, how in the world do boosters and fans alike expect the school to compete at the same level? Either you want to be a Division I version of an Ivy league school, and therefore be content with an occasional 10-2 season mixed in with several 7-5 seasons, or you are willing to bend the rules for a few football players to help win 10+ games every year and reap the million dollar payouts of BCS bowl games. There is no shame in being Stanford or Northwestern, but if the academics are as super-important as the athletic accomplishments, or as seems to be the case more important, then accept that as who you are. But neither Urban Meyer, Jim Tressel, Nick Saban, Pete Carroll, nor even Lou Holtz, would be able to win with the same regularity as Ara Parseghian did back in the day when Notre Dame, even from the standpoint of public perception, was a football-first university.

Now, that's not to say that Charlie Weis doesn't have some blame in the current situation, because he does. Still, and I know that this falls under the category of, 'if my aunt had nuts she'd be Colin Montgomery', if they make one of two last-minute field goals against Syracuse and get one more score in regulation with a 17-0 halftime lead against Pittsburgh, the Irish are 8-4 instead of 6-6 and people would be talking about how Weis improved the team by 5 wins this year. Such is football.

I still maintain, and always will, that the best course of action for Notre Dame is to do what they've done in every other sport: join the Big East. The conference would benefit from the fact that ND is still such a big brand name that they could adjust the revenue sharing percentages for TV and bowl appearances because they could make that money back by having ND on their schedule. As a Big east member, ND could play 8 conference games and still play 4 out of conference games, allowing them to keep the traditional contests with Navy, Michigan, USC, and either Stanford or Michigan State as out of conference games.

ITEM THREE: Random Thoughts

If Sean Avery had said the other day, "I find it humorous to see other guys in the NHL shooting the five-hole off the ice of some of my ex-girl friends," do you think he would have been suspended? I think the guy is a world-class jerk and is probably close to trying to make his summer internship at Vogue into a full-time gig, but I wouldn't have suspended him for what he said. That being said, I've heard Elisha Cuthbert's name more this week than in her entire career, so there's that… my favorite up-and-coming band, Shaimus, is playing at the Lighthouse Café in Hermosa Beach on Thursday night December 11^th. Word is that they are close to finishing their first studio album, so do my good friend Evan a favor and go see them on Thursday night – tell them Crief sent ya… this weekend is an important one in college football, with conference championship games in the Big 12 (Oklahoma-Missouri) and SEC (Alabama-Florida) likely deciding the two teams playing the BCS Title game next month. But my favorite of the day, and the one I dial in every year with anticipation, is the Army-navy game in Philadelphia. Once upon a time, many many years ago, this was THE game across the country, with national championship and Heisman Trophy hopes, riding on it. Today it is reduced to a game that is simply the appetizer for a college football fan's championship Saturday feast. But for me and many others, it serves as a reminder of all that is good about intercollegiate sports. I've been lucky enough to see this game live twice, and if you think of yourself as a sports fan on any level, you haven't seen a live sporting event until you've seen an Army-Navy game in person. I think the reason I enjoy it so much is because at the end of the game, the players, especially the seniors, go from being enemies on the field of football combat to brothers-in-arms on the actual field of combat serving our country. And for that, among many reasons, they have my respect… Nine years for Orenthal, huh? Funny to hear people talk about why he did what he did. It's simple: he got away with double-murder, what would make him think a simple robbery-in-the-name-of-reclaiming-his-possessions would lead bring him down? And by the way, a guy I know in his 20's asked me what the big deal about it was, and I had to explain to him what a big deal he was 25+ years ago. In many ways, when I see the footage of him in the snow at Shea Stadium breaking the 2,000 yard barrier in 1973 is haunting to look at, knowing how good he had it and knowing it would all be gone a quarter century later…

 

Pros and "Cons"

The recent situation involving Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress is both sad and frustrating. Here's a guy that has the whole world by the cojones, and he screws it up by shooting himself at a night club? Never mind the fact that he wasn't going to play in a game two days later because of a pulled hamstring. I don't understand the mentality of guys that feel the need to arm themselves in order to have a good time out at a club. I heard recently that LeBron James is building on his own property: a restaurant, a bowling alley, and a nightclub. That way, when he wants to go out with 'the fellas', he can do so on his own property and not put himself into situations that would get him into trouble. Sounds like a smart thing to do to me.

Still, the Burress situation sounds dicey, considering that it sounds like because of NYC's gun laws, he's going to be sentenced to time in prison for his transgressions. This got me to thinking, what would happen if the next NFL expansion franchise was placed in Leavenworth, Kansas?

====PRESS RELEASE====

LEAVENWORTH – The Kansas Shivs are pleased to announce the formation of their first-year expansion National Football League franchise. Shivs general manager Paul Crewe introduced head coach Dennis Erickson and his star-studded coaching staff, as well as the members of the active 53-man roster for the upcoming season.

"The recent addition of Plaxico Burress via un-free agency has further bolstered our passing attack," Crewe told reporters. "I know that Coach Erickson is excited to put him into our dynamic receiving corps."

Burress joins an impressive cadre of wide outs that already include Rae Carruth, Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss, and Chris Henry. Koren Robinson will now likely be relegated to special teams' duty only.

"I know that (Michael) Vick will be pleased to have this group of players to throw to," said Erickson.

KANSAS SHIVS COACHING STAFF:

Dennis Erickson, head coach; O.J. Simpson, offensive coordinator; Warren Moon, quarterbacks coach; Mercury Morris, running backs coach; Mark Ingram, receivers coach; Nate Newton, offensive line coach; Keith Hamilton, defensive line coach; Lawrence Taylor, linebackers coach; Eugene Robinson, defensive coordinator/defensive backs coach; Donald Igwebuike, special teams coach.

KANSAS SHIVS 53-MAN ROSTER:

QUARTERBACKS (4): Michael Vick, Todd Marinovich, Quincy Carter, Josh Booty

RUNNING BACKS (7): Lawrence Phillips, Travis Henry, Jamal Lewis, Ahmad Bradshaw, Cecil Collins, Maurice Clarett, Troy Hambrick

WIDE RECEIVERS (6): Plaxico Burress, Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, Rae Carruth, Chris Henry, Koren Robinson

TIGHT ENDS (2): Jerramy Stevens, Dwayne Carswell

OFFENSIVE TACKLES (4): Nick Kaczur, Bryant McKinnie, Luis Sharpe, Stockar McDougle

OFFENSIVE GUARDS (3): Ryan Tucker, Ben Coleman, Reed Diehl

CENTERS (2): Barrett Robbins, Todd Burger

DEFENSIVE ENDS (5): Leonard Little, Jared Allen, Kenny Mixon, Anthony Hargrove, Jason Shirley

DEFENSIVE TACKLES (4): Tank Johnson, Christian Peter, Chad Eaton, Jonathan Babineaux

LINEBACKERS (6): Ray Lewis, Steve Foley, Odell Thurman, John Mobley, Derrick Rodgers, Trevis Smith

CORNERBACKS (5): Adam 'Pacman' Jones, Deltha O'Neal, Ricky Manning Jr., Cedric Griffin, Darryl Henley

SAFETIES (3): Terrence Kiel, Damien Robinson, Dwayne Goodrich

KICKERS (2): Sebastian Janikowski, Todd Sauerbrun

=====

On paper, it would seem as though this is could be a very competitive team. It's unfortunate that the majority of the players in the NFL are able to do the right thing and never have these kinds of issues. Most of them are strong in their communities, never get caught driving under any influence of an illegal substance or alcohol, never are arrested for anything illicit. Yet, as is the case in most other things, it's always the actions of a few that impact the reputations of many.

What's $15 Trillion among citizens?

ITEM ONE: Uncle Sam can you spare some dimes?

It's as if once a week we hear about some industry that is in trouble with its finances. My initial reaction to this is that friends of mine like Brian D'Errico had the right idea about their choice of profession. Brian is currently a senior accountant for the Jacksonville Jaguars, and while I think he's found his dream job working for an NFL franchise, he's really in a good place being an accountant for an organization that constantly is under the salary cap. I say this because he and his fellow co-workers obviously know how to keep their organization profitable and running within a budget dealing with millions of dollars.

Too bad some of the companies and industries knocking on the GAO's door with their hands out don't have the same kind of people working in their financial departments. Consider the following have received government handouts in 2008 alone:

• Bear Stearns - $30 billion – JP Morgan purchased this company but needed the money as a credit line from the Federal Board to complete the purchase
  
• Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac - $200 billion – poster children for the collapse of the housing market
  
• AIG - $150 billion – and there may be more on the way
  
• Auto Industry - $25 billion – and like AIG, likely there will be a lot more on the way for the Big 3, or should we start calling them the Big 3 Idiots?
  
• "Troubled Assist Relief Program" - $700 billion – acronym is TARP but it should be TRAP, as in…
  
• Citigroup - $247.5 billion – how in the hell does a bank need money anyway
  

The total damage done here in just 2008 alone: $1,352,500,000,000.00 – that's right, $1.35 trillion dollars. Yet, the average American taxpayer, struggling as badly as ever in recent memory, doesn't get to see a single dime.

So how do we fix this? Do we storm the government buildings and burn them to the ground in an effort to start over again? Do we take all of the CEO's from these failed entities and file a class action suit to recover their salaries and bonuses, which combined probably, are equal to or exceed the above sum figure of handouts?

Well I say since our government seems to think they can just print money to cover these "loans", why not take it one step further and give us loans. Think about it: if every single citizen of the United States, and I estimate there are about 350 million of us, were to receive a check for $10,000 from the IRS, the amount the government would lay out is $3.5 trillion, or only slightly more than twice as much as all of those failing businesses were loaned. What could you do with another $10,000 right now? Could you take a nice vacation with your family for the holidays? Put a down payment on a new car, or buy new furniture? Pay off some debt or invest it in a college fund? Or just have an extra $28 a day for dinner and drinks?

I mean, if we're going to go this much into debt as a nation in order to save necessary public and private industries, isn't it just as important to save our citizens as well? Aren't we just as necessary? Okay, perhaps this isn't really feasible because of the fact that not everyone in the population pays taxes, and the rich won't need $10,000 extra since that's just pocket change to them. Still, if the government is going to allow the coffers to be fully accessible for a limited time only, why not us and why not now?

It's just a thought.

ITEM TWO: Coloring in the playoff picture

So with 4 weeks to go, we are beginning to have a clearer understanding of the NFL playoff picture. Here is where we stand:

		AFC	W	L	T	WK 14	WK 15	WK 16	WK 17
	1	TEN	11	1	0	CLE	@ Hou	PIT	@ Ind
	2	PIT	9	3	0	DAL	@ Bal	@ Ten	CLE
	3	NYJ	8	4	0	@ Sf	BUF	@ Sea	MIA
	4	DEN	7	5	0	KC	@ Car	BUF	@ Sd
	5	IND	8	4	0	CIN	DET	@ Jax	TEN
	6	BAL	8	4	0	WAS	PIT	@ Dal	JAX
		MIA	7	5	0	@ Buf	SF	@ Kc	@ Nyj
		NE	7	5	0	@ Sea	@ Oak	ARZ	@ Buf
		BUF	6	6	0	MIA	@ Nyj	@ Den	NE
		HOU	5	7	0	@ Gb	TEN	@ Oak	CHI
		JAX	4	8	0	@ Chi	GB	IND	@ Bal
		SD	4	8	0	OAK	@ Kc	@ Tb	DEN
		NFC	W	L	T	WK 14	WK 15	WK 16	WK 17
	1	NYG	11	1	0	PHI	@ Dal	CAR	@ Min
	2	TB	9	3	0	@ Car	@ Atl	SD	OAK
	3	ARZ	7	5	0	STL	MIN	@ Ne	SEA
	4	MIN	7	5	0	@ Det	@ Arz	ATL	NYG
	5	CAR	9	3	0	TB	DEN	@ Nyg	@ No
	6	ATL	8	4	0	@ No	TB	@ Min	STL
		DAL	8	4	0	@ Pit	NYG	BAL	@ Phi
		WAS	7	5	0	@ Bal	@ Cin	PHI	@ Sf
		PHI	6	5	1	@ Nyg	CLE	@ Was	DAL
		CHI	6	6	0	JAX	NO	GB	@ Was
		NO	6	6	0	ATL	@ Chi	@ Det	CAR
		GB	5	7	0	HOU	@ Jax	@ Chi	DET

Keep in mind that Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland, St. Louis, San Francisco, and Seattle have already been officially eliminated from playoff contention. I further feel that Houston, Jacksonville, and San Diego in the AFC as well as Green Bay in the NFC are also too long of long shots to get into the playoffs. It's looking more and more like there will be 3 teams from the NFC South in the playoffs this year; that 10 wins may not be enough to get in as a wild card; that 3 of the 8 division winners might only have 9 wins; and that two of the marquee franchises in the league, the Cowboys and the Patriots, would miss the playoffs if the season ended today. So as I gaze into the crystal ball, here is who I think will finish the season in the playoffs:

AFC SEEDS will be: (1) Tennessee (13-3), (2) Pittsburgh (12-4), (3) NY Jets (11-5), (4) Denver (9-7), (5) Indianapolis (12-4), and (6) Baltimore (12-4). This means that the Patriots at 11-5 will lose on the division tie-breaker to the Jets in the AFC East based on division record, and that 11 wins will not be enough for them to get in as a wild card. The Steelers will lose at Baltimore in Week 15, but will win the division based upon the conference record tie-breaker. Miami will have the chance to play a spoilers role, especially the last week at the Jets. Speaking of the Fighting Favres, they have 2 west coast trips still to come at San Francisco and Seattle, and even though they are the better team, Jet fans will understand why I don't think they will win them both and also sweep home games against Buffalo and Miami as well. And as the playoffs commence, many will question the Titans, despite a conference best 13-3 mark, because I think they will lose their last two games (vs. Pittsburgh and at Indianapolis).

NFC SEEDS will be: (1) NY Giants (14-2), (2) Carolina (12-4), (3) Minnesota (10-6), (4) Arizona (9-7), (5) Tampa Bay (11-5), and (6) Atlanta (10-6). The most glaring thing that jumps out here is Atlanta making the playoffs over NFC East stalwarts Dallas, Washington, and Philadelphia. This is where analyzing the schedule comes into the play. The Falcons road games (New Orleans and Minnesota) are winnable games, and they get St. Louis at home at end of season. The Eagles have too much ground to make up thanks to that costly tie at Cincinnati. The Redskins are getting injured in key spots at the wrong time, and even though they have road games at Cincinnati and San Francisco, something tells me that, in addition to losing this week at Baltimore, the Eagles will trip them up. The Cowboys last four are simply brutal: at Pittsburgh (no way), home to the Giants (giving them that one), home to Baltimore (not tough enough), and at Philly (fans alone there will make sure they get eliminated). This coming week's Monday nighter between Tampa Bay and Carolina will influence who wins the South; Minnesota should beat Detroit (who I thinks finishes with the 0-16) and Arizona at home, and I think the Giants will continue to do their thing down the stretch.

We'll see what happens…

RANDOM THOUGHTS: A little birdie tells me that Terrence Howard was among the celebrities at a Starline Films event this past week in Paramus, where they held a fundraiser and showed a preview of the Anyone's Son documentary. I've also heard a rumor that their funding is finally being put into place and that shooting could begin on both Anyone's Son and 4CHOSEN in 2009. I'll try to confirm this as soon as I can… I have long been a vocal proponent of a college football playoff system, and it's looking like this could be another year to make the argument. Imagine what happens if Missouri should upset Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game this coming Saturday. Does that vault Texas, a team that didn't even outright win its own division, into the BCS Championship against the Alabama/Florida winner? Does a one-loss USC team (providing it doesn't get stung by cross-town rival UCLA) get the nod? What about one-loss Penn State, who won the Big Ten outright? And if Florida does beat Alabama, let's say in overtime, doesn't a then one-loss Bama deserve a re-match opportunity like Florida did against Florida State in 1996? Memo to President-Elect Obama: when you are ready to convene your blue-ribbon college football playoff panel, just make sure I get a seat at the table and I guarantee it would get done… Speaking of the new president, I like the way he is using the "keep your friends close and enemies closer" approach to building his cabinet. I mean, from the sound of people still reacting to his election, not only will we have all financial issues rectified and complete troop withdrawal from Iraq finalized within the first 90 days, but he's also supposed to enact complete health care for everybody and discovered a cure for cancer. No pressure, right? Perhaps some of us need to lower our expectations because short of walking on water (which I'm not saying is impossible) he's not going to be able to make all of the change people want by snapping his fingers. If only… Since the above mentioned bailout of Citigroup amounts to $247.5 billion, and the $240 million over 20 years ballpark naming rights deal with the Mets is unaffected (which is ridiculous), here's my shopping list for the Mets this off-season, seeing as how money shouldn't be an object to them: start with the pitching – they won't get Sabathia, and I don't want Sheets or Burnett, but if K-Rod comes down to 3 years, then roll the dice. Otherwise, I'd try to get Jonathan Broxton from the Dodgers via trade to be the new closer, and add relievers Chad Durbin from the Phillies, Mark Hendrickson from the Marlins, and 2 of these 3 starters: Derek Lowe of the Dodgers, Randy Wolf of the Astros, and Jon Garland of the Angels, to pitch behind Santana, Maine and Pelfrey. Offensively, they need to just eat the contract of Luis Castillo and bring in Orlando Hudson from Arizona to play 2B, while adding either Craig Monroe or Shannon Stewart might be good additions to the outfield… temps were pleasant in North Wildwood for Thanksgiving this year, and it was great to visit with family, especially getting to see my Dad. The house that he grew up in at 107 Asbury Ave in Ocean City is no more. All that's left is the lot; the house was completely demolished and the rubble removed. We saw it on Friday; just this empty patch of land on a street with small plots of property overflowing with other homes, and it just looked odd. But it wasn't a total loss – the fried donuts from Ward's Pastry on Asbury Avenue between 6^th and 7^th were beyond delicious, if there is such a thing.